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AfricaMoney | August 20, 2017

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Bank of Mauritius inflation expectations survey points to lower inflation in Dec

Bank of Mauritius inflation expectations survey points to lower inflation in Dec

Also, 80% of respondents pointed out that prices of goods and services were high, 16% indicated that prices were unchanged, while the rest of the respondents considered that prices had gone down. (Image: Nawsheen’s world)

A majority of Mauritian respondents expect inflation to be less than 4.5% for December 2014, according to a survey by the central bank.

The 24th Inflation Expectations Survey for the month of August 2014 by the Bank of Mauritius also raised questions about headline inflation and the respondents’ expectations.

The findings of the survey are based on the responses of 50 stakeholders chosen from the financial and real sectors of the economy.

Regarding the 3.9% headline inflation rate for the month of July 2014, a majority of the respondents perceived this rate as being appropriate, 14% considered it to be low, 12% of the respondents found this rate to be high while 2% saw it as being too high.

Also, 80% of respondents pointed out that prices of goods and services were high, 16% indicated that prices were unchanged, while the rest of the respondents considered that prices had gone down.

Out of the total respondents, 76% considered that ‘external factors’ accounted for the primary source of inflation in Mauritius, while ‘change in exchange rates’ and ‘change in aggregate demand’ were regarded more or less at par as being the other key factors.

Concerning the movement of prices over the next 12 months, the survey outlined that 82% of respondents expected prices to rise, 6% of respondents indicated that prices will decline, while the others anticipated that prices would remain unchanged.

In addition, the respondents were asked to provide their expectations of headline inflation for December 2014, June 2015 and a year down the line.

The survey showed that for the month of December 2014, 78% of respondents were anticipating inflation to be less than 4.5%, 22% of respondents were expecting inflation to range from 4.5% to 6.5%. Incidentally, none of the respondents were anticipating inflation to be above 6.5%.

For the month of June 2015, 58% of respondents expected inflation to be lower than 4.5%, 40% of respondents were expecting inflation to be within 4.5%-6.5%, and the rest were expecting inflation to be above 6.5%.

Finally, as regards a year down the line, a majority of respondents expect inflation to be less than 4.5%, 48% of respondents were expecting inflation to range from 4.5%-6.5%, and 2% of the respondents were expecting inflation to be beyond 6.5%.

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