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AfricaMoney | August 20, 2017

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IMF lowers Mauritius’ growth forecast to 3.5% for 2015

IMF lowers Mauritius’ growth forecast to 3.5% for 2015

The International Monetary Fund has  projected 3.5% growth rate for Mauritius in 2015 as per its April report, which is below previous IMF forecasts of 3.9% growth for the island economy for 2015, in the October 2014 World Economic Outlook. (Image :thetelescopenews.com)

An overview of the World Economic Outlook projections in IMF’s April 2015 report shows that Mauritius is expected to grow a slower 3.5% in 2015 against projections of 3.9% in IMF’s October 2014 WEO report.

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa remains strong but is expected to slow this year to 4.5% from 5% in 2014 in the face of headwinds from declining commodity prices and the epidemic in Ebola-affected countries.

The oil price decline will have a severe impact on the region’s oil exporters, including Nigeria. In contrast, projected growth in the region’s oil importers is broadly unchanged, as the favorable impact of lower oil prices is offset to a large extent by lower prices of commodity exports.

South Africa’s growth is expected to rise to 2% in 2015, reflecting more binding electricity supply constraints and a tighter fiscal stance in 2016 than previously expected.

Besides, the IMF notes that world output  in advanced economies shall grow by 2.4% upon amelioration in economies such as Japan and Italy, which were experiencing a downturn in 2014, together with better growth rates in United States, Euro Area as well as France.

Moving to emerging markets and developing economies the growth rate for 2015 has been set to be 4.3%, lower than 4.6% in 2014 where details show a rebound for Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Russia and Brazil, whereas in this section Mexico shows positive growth in 2015.

On world trade, the volume of goods and services shall be boosted to 3.7% in 2015 and a further 4.3% in 2016, upon significant growth in exports of emerging market and developing countries with figures of 5.3% in 2015 against 3.4% in 2014. However, commodity prices will show negative growth of 39.6% in 2015 mainly for oil, while this shall rebound to 12.9% in 2016.

Global growth is forecast to increase marginally beyond 2016, reflecting a further pickup in growth in emerging market and developing economies that would offset more modest growth in advanced economies which primarily reflects the assumption of a gradual return to more “normal” rates of growth in countries and regions under stress or growing well below potential in 2015–16.

Finally, GDP growth forecasts are projected to increase slightly to 3.5% in 2015 and then to rise further in 2016 to 3.7%, which will be driven by a rebound in advanced economies, supported by the decline in oil prices, with the United States playing the most important role.

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