Mauritius: GDP to grow by around 3.7% in 2013
In its December 2012 issue, the Central Statistical Office expects the GDP growth for Mauritius to grow by around 3.7% in 2013, higher than the 3.3% growth estimated for 2012. Latest available information indicates that, GDP growth rate would be 3.3% in 2012, lower than the 3.5% growth registered in 2011.
Main assumptions used in the 3.7% forecast are:
(i) Sugarcane: sugar production of 400,000 tonnes of refined and special sugars, resulting in a negative growth of 3.0% compared to -7.0% in 2012.
(ii) Manufacturing Industries: to expand by around 2.0%, slightly higher than the 1.9% growth of 2012. Within the sector,
- “Sugar milling” to decline further by around 2.4% after contracting by 6.4% in 2012.
- “Food processing” to grow by 2.2% taking into account a new fish processing plant operational in 2013; growth will however be lower than the 4.3% growth in 2012 given the high growth base effect of the previous year.
- “Textile manufacturing” to grow at a higher rate of 2.0%, assuming some recovery in our main markets and diversification of markets, compared to no growth in 2012,.
- “Other manufacturing” to expand by 2.0%, higher than the 1.6% growth in 2012.
Activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE) are expected to grow by 2.6% compared to the 2.8% growth registered in 2012.
(iii) Construction: to decline further by 2.0% after the contraction of 2.9% in 2012 based on historical implementation capacity of public projects and a drop in private construction projects.
(iv) Accommodation and food service activities: a growth of around 3.5% based on tourist arrivals forecasted at 1 million in 2013, after stagnating in 2012.
(v) Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 5.5%, same as in 2012.
(vi) Other sectors: growth rates are based on trends observed during last quarters of 2012.
The above does not take into account possibilities of deterioration in the economies of our main export markets. On the other hand, recovery therein coupled with full implementation of budget measures, more specifically those related to public infrastructure projects, would result in a higher GDP growth of 3.9% in 2013.
Source: Central Statistical Office