MCCI forecasts moderate economic growth of 3.7% for Mauritius in 2015
The MCCI estimates a growth rate of 3.7% for the island economy in 2015 which is lower than the rate announced by Mauritius’ finance minister Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo; as a silver lining, though, the ICT sector will be the most dynamic sector with a long phase of growth exceeding 10%.(Image:ionnews.mu)
The first semester of 2015 indicates an economic recovery for Mauritius with positive growth expectations, however thelevel of the investment, which is expected to be the catalyst of this economic dynamism, is low.
Investment is the most important element of sustainable growth and development, and is essential to strengthen productive capacities, transform the structure of the economy and create jobs.
For Mauritius, which is an economy in a transition phase and has a long way to go to reach the next level of development, the required minimum, according to economic literature, is an investment rate of 25%.
Yet, from the beginning of the big crisis, the level of investment with regard to the GDP has not stopped plummeting, dropping below 26% in 2009, under 19.2% in 2014 and, in 2015, it is expected to reach a lowly 18.5%.
Thus, an unsatisfactory investment rate will not promote recovery at a level which would be sufficient to restart projects, like smart cities announced by the government. According to the Manager of the Economic Analysis and Industry division of the Mauritius Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), these ambitious projects will not contribute sufficiently to economic growth in the near future. Their realization is rather over the long term, explained Renganaden Padayachy.
The construction sector, he continued, is “in the red”, because “the big public infrastructural projects have come to term”, and private operators cannot invest with an amplitude similar to that of public projects.
In good news for job seekers, however, according to the Economic Perspectives Report for 2015, the unemployment rate is going to fall to 7.5% in 2015.
An improvement is also expected in the industrial, commercial, financial and tourism sectors, with 3% growth forecast for the first two, by 5% for the third and by 5.5% for the last. If the manufacturing sector presents the highest productive potential and will witness rapid technological changes, it is however the ICT sector which is one of the most dynamic sectors in Mauritius with a long phase of growth of more than 10%.
Finally, the MCCI also expects a GDP growth of 3.7% which is below the 5.3% rate announced by Minister of Finance, Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo, during his budget speech.